While anti-Brexit MPs plot and struggle, Corbyn might be their only key!
Pro-Remain MPs are so busy working out how they will defeat the Boris Johnson no deal Brexit threat after a vote of no confidence, that they’ve either forgotten or missed one or two important factors.
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Now, just to recap, Jeremy Corbyn wants an Article 50 extension to give him time to win a General Election and then negotiate a permanent customs union with the European Union prior to launching a hard left policy drive in the UK.
The trouble is though, that Boris Johnson and his pledge to leave the EU with or without a deal by the 31st of October – ‘do or die’ – stands in our Jeremy’s way.
And the only way to shift that obstacle is to win a vote of no confidence against Boris and his government and get MPs to vote confidence in the Labour leader so as to both avoid an election that would force a no deal Brexit and set those desires of his in train.
But, as he’s realised and from what we’ve seen in the last 24 to 48 hours, many MPs would not support Corbyn as the PM, not even temporarily. They want another player from the backbenchers to lead a government of national unity into a second EU referendum.
And all their talk and negotiations appear, on the face of it, to be all about getting that someone else.
And remember, Corbyn wants a general election, while the Remainer’s want a second EU referendum.
But there is one rather large Everest sized stumbling block in the way of the Remainer plans to push Corbyn out of the equation.
Now, any MP can table a no confidence motion, the new leader of the Lib Dems, Jo Swinson, did just that prior to MPs going on the summer vacation. But the government can simply ignore it and never have it debated. It’s just a political stunt and probably a waste of time and effort.
However, when the Leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition tables such a motion, then by convention it will be moved, debated and voted on.
Now, simple question – is Corbyn going to actually table a no confidence motion knowing or even suspecting that he will be sidelined by MPs?
He will come in for some pretty stinging criticism if he doesn’t. But what they’ll be saying to him is ‘come on, take one for the team, lay down your political career and never would so many Remainer MPs owe so much political capital to one single Labour leader’ etc.
With the real message being ‘toddle along now Corbyn, your time is up and you’re in the way’.
Now, Corbyn can just play a bit of the waiting game himself. Sit back and say to those claiming that they want to stop a no deal Brexit – ‘well, you know what you have to do – openly back me for the position of PM as well as my plan for an Article 50 extension and a general election and then we’ll talk’.
The trouble is, can he trust them? Would you?
As fas as I can see, a Corbyn signed motion of no confidence in the government would more likely lead to the humiliation of Jeremy Corbyn himself.
Then there’s the other huge roadblock, which is that all the advice I’ve seen suggests that Boris can legally sit out the two week no confidence period and then set a General Election at his own leisure dated for after Brexit Day.
And now I’ll put a crafty little idea to you.
It might just suit Boris to have a motion of no confidence that forces two weeks of political mayhem and ends with a general election after Brexit Day. Right after Labour and Corbyn have toasted themselves while the Lib Dems and The Brexit Party lose their reasons for political existence.
So, if Corbyn does not table his own motion of no confidence, if it suits the government and as long as it’s still tabled, there’s presumably nothing to stop the government from moving Jo Swinson’s motion and then watching the total meltdown as MPs struggle with the unexpected move – is there?
Just a thought.